H&H Export 3–1 Rancho Santana: Result & Stats

H&H Export

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rancho Santana

O. Rodriguez 87'

E. Castillo 82', 41'

T. Guarch 28'

2/12/2026

Primera Division · Clausura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

H&H Export56%

×Draw23%

Rancho Santana21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

H&H ExportExpected goals in this matchRancho Santana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.01

H&H Export

1.79

Rancho Santana

1.01

H&H Export creates 77% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 38 away

1.63

creates per match

0.68

1.34

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

H&H Export

1.63

Rancho Santana

0.68

allows per match

H&H Export

1.34

Rancho Santana

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

H&H Export+0.00on par

Rancho Santana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&H Export ↓

Rancho Santana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

H&H Export or draw

79%

H&H Export or Rancho Santana

77%

Draw or Rancho Santana

44%

Winning margin

H&H Export wins by 2+

31%

Rancho Santana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

H&H Export 1+ goals

83%

H&H Export 2+ goals

53%

H&H Export 3+ goals

26%

Rancho Santana 1+ goals

64%

Rancho Santana 2+ goals

27%

Rancho Santana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

H&H Export (draw refunded)

72%

Rancho Santana (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&H Export at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 95 matches

Rancho Santana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&H Export attack 1.63 + Rancho Santana defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rancho Santana attack 0.68 + H&H Export defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

H&H Export scores more

56%

level

23%

Rancho Santana scores more

21%

H&H Export at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "H&H Export will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

41'

82'

87'

H&H

Rancho

Manager: S. Rodríguez

Manager: J. Orellana