Rampla Juniors 0–1 Racing Montevideo

Rampla Juniors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Montevideo

J. Varela 41'

4/14/2024

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rampla Juniors38%

×Draw27%

Racing Montevideo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchRacing Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.21

Rampla Juniors

1.27

Racing Montevideo

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

1.20

1.23

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.19

Racing Montevideo

1.20

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Racing Montevideo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Racing Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

65%

Rampla Juniors or Racing Montevideo

73%

Draw or Racing Montevideo

62%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

17%

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

72%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

36%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

14%

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals

70%

Racing Montevideo 2+ goals

34%

Racing Montevideo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

52%

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.19 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Racing Montevideo attack 1.20 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

38%

level

27%

Racing Montevideo scores more

35%

Rampla Juniors at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Jonathan Urretaviscaya

41'

J. Varela

46'

G. Machado← L. Tamareo

55'

N. Royón← F. Ospitaleche

65'

D. Rosa← M. Añasco

65'

F. Casuriaga← G. Barreto

70'

A. Hernández← E. de los Santos

71'

J. Rivero← J. Urretaviscaya

74'

M. Burruzo← G. Machado

77'

85'

90'

90+1'

90+2'

S. Mederos← J. Varela

Rampla4-4-2

Racing5-3-2

9

▼

Nandín

27

▼

Verón

20

▼

Urretavis

14

▼

Santos

7

⚽

▼

21

17

5

2

4

1

1

8

24

3

17

6

▼

Ospitalec

22

Dibble

20

▼

Tamareo

5

Méndez

23

▼

Añasco

7

▼

Barreto

Manager: E. Martínez

46'▲G. Machado←▼L. Tamareo

55'▲N. Royón←▼F. Ospitaleche

65'▲D. Rosa←▼M. Añasco

65'▲F. Casuriaga←▼G. Barreto

74'▲M. Burruzo←▼G. Machado

Rampla Juniors substitutes

10Machado11Royón14Rosa28Casuriaga19Burruzo12Samurio15Gracés21Leites26Núñez30Madruga

Manager: E. Espinel

70'▲A. Hernández←▼E. de los Santos

71'▲J. Rivero←▼J. Urretaviscaya

85'▲A. Alaniz←▼T. Verón

90+1'▲E. Méndez←▼D. Nandín

90+2'▲S. Mederos←▼J. Varela

Racing Montevideo substitutes

29Hernández10Rivero18Alaniz52Méndez77Mederos3Bueno6Quiñónez19Airala25Odriozola34Pereira