Rampla Juniors 2–2 Racing Montevideo

Rampla Juniors

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Racing Montevideo

P. Pereira 50'

A. Vila 32'

G. Barreto 82'

E. De Los Santos 10'

6/10/2021

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rampla Juniors41%

×Draw29%

Racing Montevideo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchRacing Montevideo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.00

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Racing Montevideo

1.00

Rampla Juniors creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

1.23

creates per match

1.00

1.01

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Racing Montevideo

1.00

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.01

Racing Montevideo

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Racing Montevideo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

70%

Rampla Juniors or Racing Montevideo

71%

Draw or Racing Montevideo

59%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

18%

Racing Montevideo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

71%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

35%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

13%

Racing Montevideo 1+ goals

63%

Racing Montevideo 2+ goals

26%

Racing Montevideo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

58%

Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.23 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Racing Montevideo attack 1.00 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

41%

level

29%

Racing Montevideo scores more

30%

Rampla Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

E. De Los Santos

26'

J. Millán← Agustín Rodríguez

32'

A. Vila

46'

G. Díaz← A. Vila

46'

I. Méndez← G. Bazallo

50'

P. Pereira

60'

Ányelo Rodríguez← G. Alvite

60'

M. Barrios← J. Millán

68'

F. Bravo← J. Berríos

68'

Santiago Rodríguez← E. Facchin

77'

77'

77'

82'

Rampla

Racing

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Silva

46'▲G. Díaz←▼A. Vila

46'▲I. Méndez←▼G. Bazallo

68'▲F. Bravo←▼J. Berríos

68'▲Santiago Rodríguez←▼E. Facchin

77'▲M. Soto←▼J. Albín

Rampla Juniors substitutes

DíazMéndezBravoRodríguezSotoMartiñonesMachadoTrinidadCartésRodríguez

Manager: D. Santín

26'▲J. Millán←▼Agustín Rodríguez

60'▲Ányelo Rodríguez←▼G. Alvite

60'▲M. Barrios←▼J. Millán

77'▲G. Barreto←▼A. Cruz

77'▲J. Rivero←▼F. Píriz

Racing Montevideo substitutes

MillánRodríguezBarriosBarretoRiveroBorgesAguilarRodríguezOdriozolaPintos