Rampla Juniors 1–1 Miramar: Result & Stats

Rampla Juniors

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Miramar

3/23/2024

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rampla Juniors44%

×Draw26%

Miramar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchMiramar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.11

Rampla Juniors

1.43

Miramar

1.11

Rampla Juniors creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

1.08

creates per match

0.91

1.32

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.08

Miramar

0.91

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.32

Miramar

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Miramar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

71%

Rampla Juniors or Miramar

74%

Draw or Miramar

56%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

21%

Miramar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

76%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

42%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

17%

Miramar 1+ goals

67%

Miramar 2+ goals

30%

Miramar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

60%

Miramar (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Miramar away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.08 + Miramar defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Miramar attack 0.91 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

44%

level

26%

Miramar scores more

29%

Rampla Juniors at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff