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Rampla Juniors vs Miramar — Segunda División 2026

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Miramar
Miramar
11/15/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 22Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Rampla Juniors38%
×Draw28%
Miramar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.20
Miramar
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.18
Miramar
1.30

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
0.96
Miramar
1.22

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Miramar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Miramar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
66%
Rampla Juniors or Miramar
72%
Draw or Miramar
62%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
16%
Miramar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
70%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
34%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
12%
Miramar 1+ goals
68%
Miramar 2+ goals
31%
Miramar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
52%
Miramar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

Miramar away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.18 + Miramar defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Miramar attack 1.30 + Rampla Juniors defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
38%
level
28%
Miramar scores more
34%

Rampla Juniors at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Miramar

Rampla Juniors and Miramar drew 0-0 in Segunda División on November 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in Montevideo.