Rampla Juniors 0–1 Fenix: Result & Stats

Rampla Juniors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fenix

A. Barboza 90+2'

4/27/2025

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 2Estadio Luis Franzini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Rampla Juniors35%

×Draw29%

Fenix35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchFenix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

Rampla Juniors

1.09

Fenix

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 24 away

1.23

creates per match

1.17

1.01

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Fenix

1.17

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.01

Fenix

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Fenix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

65%

Rampla Juniors or Fenix

71%

Draw or Fenix

65%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

14%

Fenix wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

66%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

30%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

10%

Fenix 1+ goals

66%

Fenix 2+ goals

30%

Fenix 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

50%

Fenix (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Fenix away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.23 + Fenix defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Fenix attack 1.17 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

35%

level

29%

Fenix scores more

35%

Rampla Juniors at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

C. Techera← S. de Marco

46'

J. Barboza← Á. Dionisio

55'

E. Greising

59'

G. Vega← L. Barreto

63'

M. Rodríguez← L. Arzamendia

74'

N. Dibble← Á. Pérez

74'

R. Hernández← M. Cabrera

74'

S. Ribas← F. Milán

75'

J. Muñoz← G. Triunfo

75'

L. Rinaldi← L. Batista

90+2'

A. Barboza

Rampla

Fenix

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Somoza

46'▲J. Barboza←▼Á. Dionisio

63'▲M. Rodríguez←▼L. Arzamendia

75'▲J. Muñoz←▼G. Triunfo

75'▲L. Rinaldi←▼L. Batista

Rampla Juniors substitutes

BarbozaRodríguezMuñozRinaldiVilaAraújoAdippePólveraCappiGarcía

Manager: I. Pallas

31'▲C. Techera←▼S. de Marco

59'▲G. Vega←▼L. Barreto

74'▲N. Dibble←▼Á. Pérez

74'▲R. Hernández←▼M. Cabrera

74'▲S. Ribas←▼F. Milán

Fenix substitutes

TecheraVegaDibbleHernándezRibasAcevedoRequenaSchetinoPereiraPereira