Fenix 3–1 Rampla Juniors: Result & Stats

Fenix

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rampla Juniors

M. Pérez 90'

A. Silva 46'

R. Ferro 36'

L. Melazzi 12'

6/1/2019

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 15Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fenix50%

×Draw25%

Rampla Juniors25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenixExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

Fenix

1.61

Rampla Juniors

1.06

Fenix creates 52% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Fenix

1.20

Rampla Juniors

1.00

allows per match

Fenix

1.12

Rampla Juniors

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenix+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenix ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fenix or draw

75%

Fenix or Rampla Juniors

75%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

50%

Winning margin

Fenix wins by 2+

26%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fenix 1+ goals

80%

Fenix 2+ goals

48%

Fenix 3+ goals

22%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

65%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

29%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fenix (draw refunded)

67%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenix at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenix attack 1.20 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rampla Juniors attack 1.00 + Fenix defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fenix scores more

50%

level

25%

Rampla Juniors scores more

25%

Fenix at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

L. Melazzi

30'

G. Gorrostorrazo

32'

M. Cantera← K. Alaniz

33'

36'

38'

40'

43'

45'

46'

64'

I. Panzariello← L. Melazzi

70'

R. Abascal

77'

S. Vega← D. Vargas

79'

M. Rigoleto← R. Ferro

83'

C. Cándido← M. Saavedra

90'

M. Cantera

90'

M. Pérez

Fenix

Rampla

25

11

24

27

20

10

29

⚽

▼

Melazzi

7

Vega

14

Gorrostor

23

▼

Saavedra

8

▼

1

24

16

18

5

⚽

▼

7

20

27

17

▼

Alaniz

10

⚽

Pérez

29

▼

Acuña

Manager: J. Carrasco

32'▲M. Cantera←▼K. Alaniz

33'▲A. Silva←▼M. Acuña

79'▲M. Rigoleto←▼R. Ferro

Fenix substitutes

8Cantera9Silva23Rigoleto3Varela21Lugo22Montelongo25Young

Manager: R. Martínez

64'▲I. Panzariello←▼L. Melazzi

77'▲S. Vega←▼D. Vargas

83'▲C. Cándido←▼M. Saavedra

Rampla Juniors substitutes

32Panzariello9Vega13Cándido6Roselló12Samurio17Rosa21Silva