Rampla Juniors 0–2 Defensor Sporting

Rampla Juniors

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Defensor Sporting

Á. Navarro 85'

N. González 1'

3/3/2019

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rampla Juniors34%

×Draw28%

Defensor Sporting38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchDefensor Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Rampla Juniors

1.11

Defensor Sporting

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 71 away

1.19

creates per match

1.14

1.23

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.19

Defensor Sporting

1.14

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Defensor Sporting

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Defensor Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

62%

Rampla Juniors or Defensor Sporting

72%

Draw or Defensor Sporting

66%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

14%

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

67%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

30%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

10%

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals

70%

Defensor Sporting 2+ goals

33%

Defensor Sporting 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

47%

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.19 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Defensor Sporting attack 1.14 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

34%

level

28%

Defensor Sporting scores more

38%

Defensor Sporting at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

N. González

63'

S. Carrera← M. Rabuñal

63'

P. López← N. González

66'

P. Pereira← D. Rosa

73'

M. Saavedra← S. Vega

78'

R. Ergas← J. Piquerez

79'

Gaspar Vega

81'

N. Silva← I. Panzariello

85'

Á. Navarro

Rampla

Defensor

1

2

23

24

14

15

5

▼

Rabuñal

17

▼

Piquerez

8

Nápoli

20

⚽

Navarro

30

⚽

▼

25

3

11

24

10

15

7

13

17

▼

Rosa

32

▼

Panzariel

9

▼

Vega

Manager: G. De Los Santos

66'▲P. Pereira←▼D. Rosa

73'▲M. Saavedra←▼S. Vega

81'▲N. Silva←▼I. Panzariello

Rampla Juniors substitutes

19Pereira23Saavedra21Silva1Larrea16Ibáñez22Galli27Servetti

Manager: J. da Silva

63'▲S. Carrera←▼M. Rabuñal

63'▲P. López←▼N. González

78'▲R. Ergas←▼J. Piquerez

Defensor Sporting substitutes

18Carrera19López28Ergas7Correa10Gómez13Fuentes22Rodríguez

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Defensor Sporting

Defensor Sporting beat Rampla Juniors 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on March 3, 2019.

Goals: N. González (1'), Á. Navarro (85').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo).

Rampla Juniors vs Defensor Sporting — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Defensor Sporting