Defensor Sporting 1–0 Rampla Juniors

Defensor Sporting

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rampla Juniors

M. Juambeltz 69'

8/5/2021

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Defensor Sporting43%

×Draw28%

Rampla Juniors29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensor SportingExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Defensor Sporting

1.30

Rampla Juniors

1.00

Defensor Sporting creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Defensor Sporting

1.38

Rampla Juniors

1.00

allows per match

Defensor Sporting

1.00

Rampla Juniors

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensor Sporting ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Defensor Sporting or draw

71%

Defensor Sporting or Rampla Juniors

72%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

57%

Winning margin

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+

20%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals

73%

Defensor Sporting 2+ goals

37%

Defensor Sporting 3+ goals

14%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

63%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

26%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)

60%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensor Sporting at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensor Sporting attack 1.38 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rampla Juniors attack 1.00 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Defensor Sporting scores more

43%

level

28%

Rampla Juniors scores more

29%

Defensor Sporting at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Barrios← M. Cabrera

65'

A. Vila← G. Díaz

67'

M. Juambeltz← K. Méndez

67'

M. Ocampo← B. Correa

69'

M. Juambeltz

79'

J. Trinidad← H. Sequeira

79'

W. Corrales← I. Méndez

81'

D. Silva← J. Valiente

88'

M. Abeijón← J. Berríos

89'

F. Bravo← J. Albín

Defensor

Rampla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Rocco

46'▲F. Barrios←▼M. Cabrera

67'▲M. Juambeltz←▼K. Méndez

67'▲M. Ocampo←▼B. Correa

81'▲D. Silva←▼J. Valiente

Defensor Sporting substitutes

BarriosJuambeltzOcampoSilvaLamasNavarroLongBernalRochaRabino

Manager: J. Benia

65'▲A. Vila←▼G. Díaz

79'▲J. Trinidad←▼H. Sequeira

79'▲W. Corrales←▼I. Méndez

88'▲M. Abeijón←▼J. Berríos

89'▲F. Bravo←▼J. Albín

Rampla Juniors substitutes

VilaTrinidadCorralesAbeijónBravoFacchinBazalloCartésSotoRodríguez