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Rampla Juniors vs Cerro Largo — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
3/10/2019Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Rampla Juniors37%
×Draw29%
Cerro Largo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.13
Cerro Largo
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 78 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.08
Cerro Largo
0.86

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
1.32
Cerro Largo
1.18

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Cerro Largo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Cerro Largo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
65%
Rampla Juniors or Cerro Largo
71%
Draw or Cerro Largo
63%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
15%
Cerro Largo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
68%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
31%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
11%
Cerro Largo 1+ goals
66%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
30%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
51%
Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Cerro Largo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.08 + Cerro Largo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cerro Largo attack 0.86 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
37%
level
29%
Cerro Largo scores more
35%

Rampla Juniors at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Cerro Largo

Rampla Juniors beat Cerro Largo 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo).