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Cerro Largo vs Rampla Juniors — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
7/20/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 6Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cerro Largo53%
×Draw25%
Rampla Juniors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Largo
1.65
Rampla Juniors
0.97

Cerro Largo creates 70% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cerro Largo
1.24
Rampla Juniors
0.93

allows per match

Cerro Largo
1.01
Rampla Juniors
2.07

finishing

Cerro Largo+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Largo ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cerro Largo or draw
78%
Cerro Largo or Rampla Juniors
75%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
47%

Winning margin

Cerro Largo wins by 2+
29%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cerro Largo 1+ goals
81%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
49%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
23%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
62%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
25%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
71%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Largo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Largo attack 1.24 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rampla Juniors attack 0.93 + Cerro Largo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cerro Largo scores more
53%
level
25%
Rampla Juniors scores more
22%

Cerro Largo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cerro Largo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Cerro Largo 0–1 Rampla Juniors

Rampla Juniors beat Cerro Largo 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla in Melo.