Rampla Juniors 2–1 Central Espanol: Result & Stats

Rampla Juniors

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Central Espanol

J. Berríos 67'

J. Albín 10'

F. Mederos 5'

8/12/2021

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Rampla Juniors40%

×Draw28%

Central Espanol32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rampla JuniorsExpected goals in this matchCentral Espanol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Rampla Juniors

1.25

Central Espanol

1.07

Rampla Juniors creates 17% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 87 away

1.23

creates per match

1.13

1.01

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Rampla Juniors

1.23

Central Espanol

1.13

allows per match

Rampla Juniors

1.01

Central Espanol

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Central Espanol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw

68%

Rampla Juniors or Central Espanol

72%

Draw or Central Espanol

60%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

18%

Central Espanol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

71%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

36%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

13%

Central Espanol 1+ goals

66%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

29%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

56%

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Central Espanol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.28 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.23 + Central Espanol defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Central Espanol attack 1.13 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more

40%

level

28%

Central Espanol scores more

32%

Rampla Juniors at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

F. Mederos

10'

J. Albín

59'

S. Bellini← M. Roskopf

62'

E. Facchin← H. Sequeira

62'

W. Corrales← G. Díaz

67'

J. Berríos

68'

J. Figueroa← L. Moreira

68'

S. Gallegos← F. Mederos

73'

G. Bazallo← I. Méndez

73'

J. Trinidad← P. Pereira

75'

R. Tarragona← D. Flores

90+3'

M. Soto← J. Albín

Rampla

Central

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Benia

62'▲E. Facchin←▼H. Sequeira

62'▲W. Corrales←▼G. Díaz

73'▲G. Bazallo←▼I. Méndez

73'▲J. Trinidad←▼P. Pereira

90+3'▲M. Soto←▼J. Albín

Rampla Juniors substitutes

FacchinCorralesBazalloTrinidadSotoServettiMachadoCartésRodríguezViera

Manager: M. Szlafmyc

59'▲S. Bellini←▼M. Roskopf

68'▲J. Figueroa←▼L. Moreira

68'▲S. Gallegos←▼F. Mederos

75'▲R. Tarragona←▼D. Flores

Central Espanol substitutes

BelliniFigueroaGallegosTarragonaMuelaVillalpandoOlavarríaSilvaMorandiSacarelo

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Central Espanol

Rampla Juniors beat Central Espanol 2-1 in Segunda División on August 12, 2021.

Goals: F. Mederos (5'), J. Albín (10'), J. Berríos (67').

The match was played at Estadio Charrúa in Montevideo.

Rampla Juniors vs Central Espanol — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Central Espanol