Central Espanol 3–0 Rampla Juniors: Result & Stats

Central Espanol

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rampla Juniors

E. Tracchia 84'

F. Mederos 54'

R. Tarragona 7'

11/25/2021

Segunda División · Round 22Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Central Espanol40%

×Draw29%

Rampla Juniors31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central EspanolExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.01

Central Espanol

1.20

Rampla Juniors

1.01

Central Espanol creates 19% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 78 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

1.02

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Central Espanol

1.17

Rampla Juniors

1.00

allows per match

Central Espanol

1.02

Rampla Juniors

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Espanol+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Espanol ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Central Espanol or draw

69%

Central Espanol or Rampla Juniors

71%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

60%

Winning margin

Central Espanol wins by 2+

17%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central Espanol 1+ goals

70%

Central Espanol 2+ goals

34%

Central Espanol 3+ goals

12%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

64%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

27%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Central Espanol (draw refunded)

57%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Espanol at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Espanol attack 1.17 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rampla Juniors attack 1.00 + Central Espanol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Central Espanol scores more

40%

level

29%

Rampla Juniors scores more

31%

Central Espanol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Central Espanol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. Tarragona

54'

F. Mederos

57'

L. Ponce← M. Borba

57'

L. Silva← L. Olavarría

57'

M. Roskopf← F. Salazar

59'

G. Díaz← W. Corrales

60'

C. Núñez← P. Pereira

60'

H. Sequeira← J. Albín

63'

F. O'Niell← C. Muela

65'

G. Sacarelo← R. Tarragona

84'

E. Tracchia

85'

R. Vidal← A. Vila

Central

Rampla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Tarragona

Manager: M. Szlafmyc

57'▲L. Ponce←▼M. Borba

57'▲L. Silva←▼L. Olavarría

57'▲M. Roskopf←▼F. Salazar

63'▲F. O'Niell←▼C. Muela

65'▲G. Sacarelo←▼R. Tarragona

Central Espanol substitutes

PonceSilvaRoskopfO'NiellSacareloGonzálezNúñezAllalaJonesFuentes

Manager: J. Antúnez

59'▲G. Díaz←▼W. Corrales

60'▲C. Núñez←▼P. Pereira

60'▲H. Sequeira←▼J. Albín

85'▲R. Vidal←▼A. Vila

Rampla Juniors substitutes

DíazNúñezSequeiraVidalFacchinMacEachenOcampoMachadoRamírezGelpi

Match Recap: Central Espanol vs Rampla Juniors

Central Espanol beat Rampla Juniors 3-0 in Segunda División on November 25, 2021.

Goals: R. Tarragona (7'), F. Mederos (54'), E. Tracchia (84').

The match was played at Estadio Charrúa in Montevideo.

Central Espanol vs Rampla Juniors — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Central Espanol vs Rampla Juniors