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Rampla Juniors vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boston River
Boston River
5/12/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Rampla Juniors36%
×Draw28%
Boston River36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rampla Juniors
1.18
Boston River
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 82 away

creates per match

Rampla Juniors
1.08
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Rampla Juniors
1.32
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rampla Juniors ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rampla Juniors or draw
64%
Rampla Juniors or Boston River
72%
Draw or Boston River
64%

Winning margin

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
15%
Boston River wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
69%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
33%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
12%
Boston River 1+ goals
69%
Boston River 2+ goals
33%
Boston River 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
50%
Boston River (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rampla Juniors at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rampla Juniors attack 1.08 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Boston River attack 1.02 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rampla Juniors scores more
36%
level
28%
Boston River scores more
36%

Rampla Juniors at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rampla Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rampla Juniors vs Boston River

Boston River beat Rampla Juniors 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico in Montevideo.