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Boston River vs Rampla Juniors — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
4/14/2019Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 9Complejo Deportivo Rentistas (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Boston River49%
×Draw25%
Rampla Juniors26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.63
Rampla Juniors
1.11

Boston River creates 47% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 27 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Rampla Juniors
0.93

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Rampla Juniors
2.07

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
74%
Boston River or Rampla Juniors
75%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
51%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
26%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
80%
Boston River 2+ goals
48%
Boston River 3+ goals
22%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
67%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
30%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
66%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Rampla Juniors defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rampla Juniors attack 0.93 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Boston River scores more
49%
level
25%
Rampla Juniors scores more
26%

Boston River at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Rampla Juniors

Boston River and Rampla Juniors drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Rentistas (Montevideo).