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Rakytovce vs Liptovský Hrádok — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
7 – 0
Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
8/8/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 2Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce77%
×Draw14%
Liptovský Hrádok9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.77
Liptovský Hrádok
0.82

Rakytovce creates 238% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Liptovský Hrádok
1.00

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Liptovský Hrádok
2.86

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Liptovský Hrádok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
91%
Rakytovce or Liptovský Hrádok
86%
Draw or Liptovský Hrádok
23%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
57%
Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
94%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
76%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
51%
Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
56%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
20%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
90%
Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Liptovský Hrádok away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.77

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.00 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Rakytovce scores more
77%
level
14%
Liptovský Hrádok scores more
9%

Rakytovce at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Rakytovce 7–0 Liptovský Hrádok

Rakytovce beat Liptovský Hrádok 7-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.