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Liptovský Hrádok vs Rakytovce — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovský Hrádok
Liptovský Hrádok
FT
1 – 2
Rakytovce
Rakytovce
4/2/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 17Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Liptovský Hrádok37%
×Draw26%
Rakytovce38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Hrádok
1.37
Rakytovce
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.70
Rakytovce
1.39

allows per match

Liptovský Hrádok
1.39
Rakytovce
1.04

finishing

Liptovský Hrádok+0.00on par
Rakytovce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Hrádok ↓

Rakytovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Liptovský Hrádok or draw
62%
Liptovský Hrádok or Rakytovce
74%
Draw or Rakytovce
63%

Winning margin

Liptovský Hrádok wins by 2+
17%
Rakytovce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Liptovský Hrádok 1+ goals
75%
Liptovský Hrádok 2+ goals
40%
Liptovský Hrádok 3+ goals
16%
Rakytovce 1+ goals
75%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
40%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Hrádok (draw refunded)
49%
Rakytovce (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Hrádok at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Rakytovce away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Hrádok attack 1.70 + Rakytovce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rakytovce attack 1.39 + Liptovský Hrádok defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Liptovský Hrádok scores more
37%
level
26%
Rakytovce scores more
38%

Rakytovce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liptovský Hrádok vs Rakytovce

Rakytovce beat Liptovský Hrádok 2-1 in 3. liga - Center on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión pri Belej Liptovský Hrádok in Liptovský Hrádok.