Rakytovce 7–0 Liptovská Štiavnica: Result & Stats

Rakytovce

FT

7 – 0

Liptovská Štiavnica

8/9/2020

3. liga - Center · Center - 2Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce80%

×Draw13%

Liptovská Štiavnica7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RakytovceExpected goals in this matchLiptovská Štiavnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

0.69

Rakytovce

2.78

Liptovská Štiavnica

0.69

Rakytovce creates 303% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

2.68

creates per match

0.74

0.64

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Rakytovce

2.68

Liptovská Štiavnica

0.74

allows per match

Rakytovce

0.64

Liptovská Štiavnica

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw

93%

Rakytovce or Liptovská Štiavnica

87%

Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica

20%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+

60%

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals

94%

Rakytovce 2+ goals

76%

Rakytovce 3+ goals

51%

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals

50%

Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals

15%

Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)

92%

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.78

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Rakytovce scores more

80%

level

13%

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more

7%

Rakytovce at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff