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Liptovská Štiavnica vs Rakytovce — 3. liga - Center 2020

Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Rakytovce
Rakytovce
5/29/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 25Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Liptovská Štiavnica34%
×Draw24%
Rakytovce42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.43
Rakytovce
1.63

Rakytovce creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.82
Rakytovce
1.39

allows per match

Liptovská Štiavnica
1.86
Rakytovce
1.04

finishing

Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par
Rakytovce+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovská Štiavnica ↓

Rakytovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Liptovská Štiavnica or draw
58%
Liptovská Štiavnica or Rakytovce
76%
Draw or Rakytovce
66%

Winning margin

Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
15%
Rakytovce wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
76%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
42%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
17%
Rakytovce 1+ goals
80%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
48%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
44%
Rakytovce (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovská Štiavnica at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

Rakytovce away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 1.82 + Rakytovce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rakytovce attack 1.39 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
34%
level
24%
Rakytovce scores more
42%

Rakytovce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Liptovská Štiavnica 1–4 Rakytovce

Rakytovce beat Liptovská Štiavnica 4-1 in 3. liga - Center on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Družstevník Liptovská Štiavnica in Liptovská Štiavnica.