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Rakytovce vs Baník Kalinovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Rakytovce
Rakytovce
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
6/4/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 26Futbalový štadión Rakytovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rakytovce70%
×Draw19%
Baník Kalinovo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakytovce
2.16
Baník Kalinovo
0.75

Rakytovce creates 188% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Rakytovce
2.68
Baník Kalinovo
0.86

allows per match

Rakytovce
0.64
Baník Kalinovo
1.63

finishing

Rakytovce+0.00on par
Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakytovce ↓

Baník Kalinovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rakytovce or draw
88%
Rakytovce or Baník Kalinovo
81%
Draw or Baník Kalinovo
30%

Winning margin

Rakytovce wins by 2+
45%
Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rakytovce 1+ goals
88%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
63%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
36%
Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
53%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
17%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rakytovce (draw refunded)
86%
Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakytovce at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakytovce attack 2.68 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.16

Baník Kalinovo attack 0.86 + Rakytovce defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rakytovce scores more
70%
level
19%
Baník Kalinovo scores more
12%

Rakytovce at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Rakytovce 6–1 Baník Kalinovo

Rakytovce beat Baník Kalinovo 6-1 in 3. liga - Center on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Rakytovce in Banská Bystrica.