Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baník Kalinovo vs Rakytovce — 3. liga - Center 2020

Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
FT
0 – 1
Rakytovce
Rakytovce
10/10/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 11Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Baník Kalinovo35%
×Draw26%
Rakytovce39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Kalinovo
1.33
Rakytovce
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.61
Rakytovce
1.39

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo
1.44
Rakytovce
1.04

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par
Rakytovce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Rakytovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw
61%
Baník Kalinovo or Rakytovce
74%
Draw or Rakytovce
65%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
16%
Rakytovce wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
74%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
38%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
15%
Rakytovce 1+ goals
76%
Rakytovce 2+ goals
41%
Rakytovce 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
47%
Rakytovce (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Rakytovce away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.61 + Rakytovce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rakytovce attack 1.39 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more
35%
level
26%
Rakytovce scores more
39%

Rakytovce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rakytovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Kalinovo vs Rakytovce

Rakytovce beat Baník Kalinovo 1-0 in 3. liga - Center on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Kalinovo in Kalinovo.