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Rakvere Tarvas vs K-Järve JK Järve — Esiliiga A 2026

Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
7/25/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 21Vinni staadion (Vinni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rakvere Tarvas50%
×Draw21%
K-Järve JK Järve29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rakvere Tarvas
2.12
K-Järve JK Järve
1.59

Rakvere Tarvas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Rakvere Tarvas
1.11
K-Järve JK Järve
0.96

allows per match

Rakvere Tarvas
2.22
K-Järve JK Järve
3.13

finishing

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakvere Tarvas ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rakvere Tarvas or draw
71%
Rakvere Tarvas or K-Järve JK Järve
79%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
50%

Winning margin

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
29%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
88%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
62%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
35%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
80%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
47%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
63%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakvere Tarvas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.11 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.12

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rakvere Tarvas scores more
50%
level
21%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
29%

Rakvere Tarvas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rakvere Tarvas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Rakvere Tarvas 2–2 K-Järve JK Järve

Rakvere Tarvas and K-Järve JK Järve drew 2-2 in Esiliiga A on July 25, 2019.

The match was played at Vinni staadion (Vinni).