K-Järve JK Järve 2–3 Rakvere Tarvas: Result & Stats

K-Järve JK Järve

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Rakvere Tarvas

11/10/2019

Esiliiga A · Round 36Spordikeskuse staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve48%

×Draw21%

Rakvere Tarvas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

K-Järve JK JärveExpected goals in this matchRakvere Tarvas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.74

K-Järve JK Järve

2.18

Rakvere Tarvas

1.74

K-Järve JK Järve creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 18 away

1.14

creates per match

0.83

2.65

allows per match

3.22

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve

1.14

Rakvere Tarvas

0.83

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve

2.65

Rakvere Tarvas

3.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw

69%

K-Järve JK Järve or Rakvere Tarvas

79%

Draw or Rakvere Tarvas

52%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

28%

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

89%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

64%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

37%

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals

82%

Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals

52%

Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

61%

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.65 · 71 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.14 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.18

Rakvere Tarvas attack 0.83 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

48%

level

21%

Rakvere Tarvas scores more

31%

K-Järve JK Järve at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "K-Järve JK Järve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff