Rakvere Tarvas 0–2 Flora II: Result & Stats

Rakvere Tarvas

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Flora II

11/2/2019

Esiliiga A · Round 35Rakvere kunstmuru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rakvere Tarvas23%

×Draw21%

Flora II56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rakvere TarvasExpected goals in this matchFlora II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.13

Rakvere Tarvas

1.31

Flora II

2.13

Flora II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 125 away

1.11

creates per match

2.03

2.22

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Rakvere Tarvas

1.11

Flora II

2.03

allows per match

Rakvere Tarvas

2.22

Flora II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Flora II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rakvere Tarvas ↓

Flora II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rakvere Tarvas or draw

44%

Rakvere Tarvas or Flora II

79%

Draw or Flora II

77%

Winning margin

Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+

10%

Flora II wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals

73%

Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals

38%

Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals

14%

Flora II 1+ goals

88%

Flora II 2+ goals

63%

Flora II 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)

29%

Flora II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rakvere Tarvas at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Flora II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.50 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rakvere Tarvas attack 1.11 + Flora II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Flora II attack 2.03 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rakvere Tarvas scores more

23%

level

21%

Flora II scores more

56%

Flora II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff