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Flora II vs Rakvere Tarvas — Esiliiga A 2026

Flora II
Flora II
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rakvere Tarvas
Rakvere Tarvas
4/11/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 6Sportland Arena (Tallinn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Flora II72%
×Draw16%
Rakvere Tarvas13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora II
2.81
Rakvere Tarvas
1.13

Flora II creates 149% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

creates per match

Flora II
2.39
Rakvere Tarvas
0.83

allows per match

Flora II
1.43
Rakvere Tarvas
3.22

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par
Rakvere Tarvas+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Rakvere Tarvas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Flora II or draw
87%
Flora II or Rakvere Tarvas
84%
Draw or Rakvere Tarvas
28%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+
51%
Rakvere Tarvas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals
94%
Flora II 2+ goals
76%
Flora II 3+ goals
52%
Rakvere Tarvas 1+ goals
68%
Rakvere Tarvas 2+ goals
31%
Rakvere Tarvas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)
85%
Rakvere Tarvas (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

Rakvere Tarvas away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.39 + Rakvere Tarvas defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.81

Rakvere Tarvas attack 0.83 + Flora II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Flora II scores more
72%
level
16%
Rakvere Tarvas scores more
13%

Flora II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Flora II 8–0 Rakvere Tarvas

Flora II beat Rakvere Tarvas 8-0 in Esiliiga A on April 11, 2019.

The match was played at Sportland Arena (Tallinn).