Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Slavia Praha

1/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5La Quinta Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raków Częstochowa51%

×Draw22%

Slavia Praha27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.35

Raków Częstochowa

1.93

Slavia Praha

1.35

Raków Częstochowa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

2.36

creates per match

1.50

1.21

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

2.36

Slavia Praha

1.50

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.21

Slavia Praha

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

73%

Raków Częstochowa or Slavia Praha

78%

Draw or Slavia Praha

49%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

29%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

85%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

57%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

30%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

74%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

39%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

65%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 2.36 + Slavia Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Slavia Praha attack 1.50 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

51%

level

22%

Slavia Praha scores more

27%

Raków Częstochowa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Slavia Praha

Raków Częstochowa and Slavia Praha drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at La Quinta Football Center.

Raków Częstochowa vs Slavia Praha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Slavia Praha