Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Praha

F. Tudor 61'

Ivi López 29'

T. Holeš 60'

8/18/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsMiejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Raków Częstochowa53%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

Raków Częstochowa

1.67

Slavia Praha

1.00

Raków Częstochowa creates 67% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

1.58

0.42

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.75

Slavia Praha

1.58

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

0.42

Slavia Praha

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

77%

Raków Częstochowa or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

47%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

29%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

81%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

50%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

23%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

63%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

26%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

70%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.75 + Slavia Praha defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slavia Praha attack 1.58 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

53%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

23%

Raków Częstochowa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Ivi López

40'

S. Plavšić← O. Dorley

46'

M. Wdowiak← V. Kochergin

46'

I. Traoré← Eduardo Santos

54'

Ondrej Lingr

60'

T. Holeš

61'

V. Gutkovskis← S. Musiolik

61'

66'

81'

82'

82'

S. Czyż← G. Papanikolaou

87'

W. Długosz← Ivi López

90+1'

Mateusz Wdowiak

90+2'

Aiham Ousou

Raków3-4-3

Slavia4-2-3-1

32

▼

9

23

16

3

⚽

Holeš

5

Tiéhi

19

▼

Dorley

12

▼

4

26

28

12

3

24

4

23

66

▼

Papanikol

88

Gvilia

7

⚽

▼

Tudor

11

⚽

▼

López

9

▼

Musiolik

30

▼

Kochergin

Manager: M. Papszun

46'▲M. Wdowiak←▼V. Kochergin

61'▲V. Gutkovskis←▼S. Musiolik

82'▲B. Nowak←▼F. Tudor

82'▲S. Czyż←▼G. Papanikolaou

87'▲W. Długosz←▼Ivi López

Raków Częstochowa substitutes

17Wdowiak21Gutkovskis27Nowak55Czyż71Długosz76Rajczykowski5Berggren99Piasecki25Racovițan16Krzyżak

Manager: J. Trpišovský

40'▲S. Plavšić←▼O. Dorley

46'▲I. Traoré←▼Eduardo Santos

66'▲M. Jurásek←▼O. Lingr

Slavia Praha substitutes

10Plavšić27Traoré35Jurásek11Tecl33Jurásek30Kacharaba29Valenta21Douděra41Kričfaluši34Sirotník8Masopust1Kolář

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Slavia Praha

Raków Częstochowa beat Slavia Praha 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 18, 2022.

Goals: Ivi López (29'), T. Holeš (60'), F. Tudor (61').

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.

Raków Częstochowa vs Slavia Praha — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs Slavia Praha