Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Motor Lublin: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Motor Lublin

Jean Carlos 90+4'

V. Kochergin 10'

S. Mráz 73'

M. Bartoš 32'

12/7/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 18Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Raków Częstochowa49%

×Draw24%

Motor Lublin27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchMotor Lublin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.20

Raków Częstochowa

1.72

Motor Lublin

1.20

Raków Częstochowa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.64

creates per match

1.34

1.06

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.64

Motor Lublin

1.34

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.06

Motor Lublin

1.80

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Raków Częstochowa-0.05on par

Motor Lublin+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Motor Lublin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

73%

Raków Częstochowa or Motor Lublin

76%

Draw or Motor Lublin

51%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

27%

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

82%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

51%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

25%

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

70%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

34%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

65%

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.06 · 27 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.80 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.64 + Motor Lublin defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.72

Motor Lublin attack 1.34 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

49%

level

24%

Motor Lublin scores more

27%

Raków Częstochowa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ivi López

Raków Częstochowa · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

V. Kochergin↳ M. Ameyaw

18'

S. Svarnas← E. Otieno

32'

M. Bartoš↳ K. Çalışkaner

38'

Sergi Samper

46'

L. Lamprou← J. Díaz

54'

Zoran ArsenićPenalty cancelled

58'

M. Król← M. NDiaye

73'

S. Mráz↳ Sergi Samper

77'

F. Wójcik← P. Stolarski

80'

J. Braut Brunes← M. Ameyaw

80'

P. Baráth← G. Berggren

89'

C. Simon← K. Çalışkaner

90+16'

Bartosz Wolski

90'

M. Rodin← M. Rundić

90'

R. Król← Sergi Samper

90'

K. Wełniak← S. Mráz

90+4'

Jean Carlos↳ P. Baráth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RakówMotor

Overview

64%Possession36%

25Total Shots10

1.99Expected Goals (xG)1.38

10Corners1

5Fouls15

Shots

25Total Shots10

9On Target3

7Off Target4

9Blocked3

16Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

611Total Passes344

539Accurate Passes272

88%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

5Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Motor Lublin

Raków Częstochowa and Motor Lublin drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on December 7, 2024.

Goals: V. Kochergin (10'), M. Bartoš (32'), S. Mráz (73'), Jean Carlos (90+4').

Raków Częstochowa controlled possession (64%) and registered 25 shots to 10.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ekstraklasa: Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Motor Lublin