Motor Lublin 0–2 Raków Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Motor Lublin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Raków Częstochowa

D. Drachal 87'

A. Crnac 32'

7/21/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Motor Lublin33%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motor LublinExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.67

Motor Lublin

1.42

Raków Częstochowa

1.67

Raków Częstochowa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.53

creates per match

1.66

1.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Motor Lublin

1.53

Raków Częstochowa

1.66

allows per match

Motor Lublin

1.67

Raków Częstochowa

1.30

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Motor Lublin-0.01on par

Raków Częstochowa-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw

57%

Motor Lublin or Raków Częstochowa

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

67%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

15%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

76%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

41%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

17%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

81%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

50%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

43%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.53 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.66 + Motor Lublin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Motor Lublin scores more

33%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

43%

Raków Częstochowa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Crnac

Raków Częstochowa · F

8.3

Match Events

24'

Vladyslav KocherginPenalty cancelled

32'

37'

43'

45'

59'

M. N'Diaye← K. Kubica

59'

K. Çalışkaner← S. Mráz

76'

Bogdan Racovițan

78'

C. Simon← M. Scalet

78'

P. Stolarski← F. Luberecki

78'

E. Otieno← Adriano Amorim

82'

Ante Crnac

84'

D. Drachal← P. Makuch

84'

P. Baráth← V. Kochergin

87'

D. Drachal↳ A. Crnac

90+1'

S. Svarnas← F. Tudor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MotorRaków

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots16

0.75Expected Goals (xG)1.93

4Corners8

7Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots16

2On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked6

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

351Total Passes370

267Accurate Passes289

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1