Raków Częstochowa 1–1 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats

Raków Częstochowa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ŁKS Łódź

6/7/2020

Ekstraklasa · Round 28Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Raków Częstochowa67%

×Draw20%

ŁKS Łódź13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.72

Raków Częstochowa

2.00

ŁKS Łódź

0.72

Raków Częstochowa creates 178% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 36 away

1.76

creates per match

0.64

0.80

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa

1.76

ŁKS Łódź

0.64

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa

0.80

ŁKS Łódź

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw

87%

Raków Częstochowa or ŁKS Łódź

80%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

33%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

42%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

86%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

59%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

32%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

51%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

16%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

84%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.76 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more

67%

level

20%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

13%

Raków Częstochowa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff