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ŁKS Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa — Ekstraklasa 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
7/14/2020EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Relegation Round - 6Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź30%
×Draw25%
Raków Częstochowa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.23
Raków Częstochowa
1.59

Raków Częstochowa creates 29% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 118 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.26
Raków Częstochowa
1.42

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.77
Raków Częstochowa
1.20

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Raków Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
54%
ŁKS Łódź or Raków Częstochowa
75%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
70%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
12%
Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
71%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
35%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
13%
Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
80%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
47%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
39%
Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.20 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.42 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
30%
level
25%
Raków Częstochowa scores more
46%

Raków Częstochowa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: ŁKS Łódź 3–2 Raków Częstochowa

ŁKS Łódź beat Raków Częstochowa 3-2 in Ekstraklasa on July 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Łódź.