GKS Katowice 1–1 Raków Częstochowa: Result & Stats

Friendlies Clubs·2026

GKS Katowice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Raków Częstochowa

E. Markovic 54'

A. Basse 85'

Date: Jul 16, 2026, 10:00 AM
Tournament: Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GKS Katowice70%

×Draw16%

Raków Częstochowa14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GKS KatowiceExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.11

GKS Katowice

2.68

Raków Częstochowa

1.11

GKS Katowice creates 141% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.57

creates per match

1.80

0.43

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

GKS Katowice

2.57

Raków Częstochowa

1.80

allows per match

GKS Katowice

0.43

Raków Częstochowa

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GKS Katowice+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

GKS Katowice or draw

86%

GKS Katowice or Raków Częstochowa

84%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

30%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice wins by 2+

49%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

GKS Katowice 1+ goals

93%

GKS Katowice 2+ goals

74%

GKS Katowice 3+ goals

49%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

67%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

30%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice (draw refunded)

84%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice attack 2.57 + Raków Częstochowa defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.68

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.80 + GKS Katowice defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

GKS Katowice scores more

70%

level

16%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

14%

GKS Katowice at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "GKS Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

E. Markovic

85'

A. Basse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff