Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Raków Częstochowa50%
GKS Katowice25%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Raków Częstochowa creates 50% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Raków Częstochowa ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.98 · 9 matches
GKS Katowice away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Raków Częstochowa attack 1.69 + GKS Katowice defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58
GKS Katowice attack 1.13 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Raków Częstochowa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
GKS Katowice substitutes
Lech Poznan
Gornik Zabrze
Jagiellonia
Legia WarszawaGKS KatowiceRaków Częstochowa
Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Motor Lublin
Piast Gliwice
Cracovia Krakow
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Widzew Łódź
Lechia Gdansk
Nieciecza
Arka GdyniaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Raków Częstochowa host GKS Katowice on Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
GKS Katowice beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 8, 2025.
Goals: S. Bergier (19'), Ivi López (54'), M. Kowalczyk (65').
Raków Częstochowa controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 16.
The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.