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Raków Częstochowa vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
3/30/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 26Stadion Raków (Częstochowa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Raków Częstochowa68%
×Draw21%
Garbarnia Kraków11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.85
Garbarnia Kraków
0.56

Raków Częstochowa creates 230% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.53
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
0.41
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
89%
Raków Częstochowa or Garbarnia Kraków
79%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
32%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
42%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
84%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
55%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
28%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
43%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
11%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
87%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.53 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
68%
level
21%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
11%

Raków Częstochowa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Raków Częstochowa 1–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Raków Częstochowa beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in I Liga on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Raków (Częstochowa).