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Garbarnia Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
9/9/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 9Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków15%
×Draw25%
Raków Częstochowa60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.68
Raków Częstochowa
1.62

Raków Częstochowa creates 138% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Raków Częstochowa
1.65

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Raków Częstochowa
0.88

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Raków Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
40%
Garbarnia Kraków or Raków Częstochowa
75%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
85%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
4%
Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
49%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
15%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
3%
Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
80%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
48%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
20%
Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.68

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.65 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
15%
level
25%
Raków Częstochowa scores more
60%

Raków Częstochowa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Garbarnia Kraków 1 – 1 Raków Częstochowa

Garbarnia Kraków and Raków Częstochowa drew 1-1 in I Liga on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).