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Raków Częstochowa vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
9/29/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 12Stadion Raków (Częstochowa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Raków Częstochowa54%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.65
Bytovia Bytów
0.94

Raków Częstochowa creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.53
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
0.41
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
79%
Raków Częstochowa or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
46%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
29%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
81%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
49%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
23%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
61%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
24%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
72%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.53 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
54%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
21%

Raków Częstochowa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Bytovia Bytów

Raków Częstochowa beat Bytovia Bytów 2-1 in I Liga on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Raków (Częstochowa).