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Bytovia Bytów vs Raków Częstochowa — I Liga 2018

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
4/18/2019I LigaI Liga · Round 29Stadion MOSiR (Bytów)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów27%
×Draw27%
Raków Częstochowa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.03
Raków Częstochowa
1.42

Raków Częstochowa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Raków Częstochowa
1.65

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.18
Raków Częstochowa
0.88

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Raków Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
54%
Bytovia Bytów or Raków Częstochowa
73%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
73%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
10%
Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
64%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
28%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
9%
Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
76%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
41%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
37%
Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.18 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.65 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
27%
level
27%
Raków Częstochowa scores more
46%

Raków Częstochowa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Bytovia Bytów 2–2 Raków Częstochowa

Bytovia Bytów and Raków Częstochowa drew 2-2 in I Liga on April 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Bytów).