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Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Polonia Warszawa U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Raków Częstochowa U19
Raków Częstochowa U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Polonia Warszawa U19
Polonia Warszawa U19
5/27/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1939%
×Draw23%
Polonia Warszawa U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.63
Polonia Warszawa U19
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 53 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.52
Polonia Warszawa U19
1.83

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U19
1.35
Polonia Warszawa U19
1.74

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U19 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw
63%
Raków Częstochowa U19 or Polonia Warszawa U19
77%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa U19
61%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+
20%
Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals
80%
Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals
48%
Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals
22%
Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
80%
Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
47%
Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Polonia Warszawa U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.52 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.83 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more
39%
level
23%
Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more
37%

Raków Częstochowa U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Raków Częstochowa U19 1 – 3 Polonia Warszawa U19

Polonia Warszawa U19 beat Raków Częstochowa U19 3-1 in Central Youth League on May 27, 2023.