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Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Raków Częstochowa U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Polonia Warszawa U19
Polonia Warszawa U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Raków Częstochowa U19
Raków Częstochowa U19
8/19/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Polonia Warszawa U1945%
×Draw23%
Raków Częstochowa U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.75
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.46

Polonia Warszawa U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

creates per match

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.69
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.64

allows per match

Polonia Warszawa U19
1.29
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.82

finishing

Polonia Warszawa U19+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Warszawa U19 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Polonia Warszawa U19 or draw
68%
Polonia Warszawa U19 or Raków Częstochowa U19
77%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa U19
55%

Winning margin

Polonia Warszawa U19 wins by 2+
24%
Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Polonia Warszawa U19 1+ goals
83%
Polonia Warszawa U19 2+ goals
52%
Polonia Warszawa U19 3+ goals
25%
Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals
77%
Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals
43%
Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Polonia Warszawa U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Warszawa U19 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Raków Częstochowa U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Warszawa U19 attack 1.69 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.64 + Polonia Warszawa U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Polonia Warszawa U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more
32%

Polonia Warszawa U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Raków Częstochowa U19

Polonia Warszawa U19 beat Raków Częstochowa U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on August 19, 2023.