Raków Częstochowa II 4–2 Pawłowice Śląskie

Raków Częstochowa II

FT

4 – 2

Pawłowice Śląskie

5/13/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa II49%

×Draw24%

Pawłowice Śląskie27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa IIExpected goals in this matchPawłowice Śląskie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.22

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.22

Raków Częstochowa II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

1.62

creates per match

1.20

1.24

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa II

1.62

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.20

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa II

1.24

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa II ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa II or draw

73%

Raków Częstochowa II or Pawłowice Śląskie

76%

Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie

51%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

26%

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

82%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

51%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

24%

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

70%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

34%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

64%

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.62 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

49%

level

24%

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

27%

Raków Częstochowa II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff