Pawłowice Śląskie 3–0 Raków Częstochowa II

Pawłowice Śląskie

FT

3 – 0

Raków Częstochowa II

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie43%

×Draw23%

Raków Częstochowa II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pawłowice ŚląskieExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.58

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.78

Raków Częstochowa II

1.58

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 13% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

1.85

creates per match

1.53

1.63

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.85

Raków Częstochowa II

1.53

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.63

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw

66%

Pawłowice Śląskie or Raków Częstochowa II

77%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa II

57%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

23%

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

83%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

53%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

26%

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

79%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

47%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

55%

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

43%

level

23%

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

34%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff