Raków Częstochowa II 2–2 Lechia Zielona Góra

Raków Częstochowa II

FT

2 – 2

Lechia Zielona Góra

11/18/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa II41%

×Draw25%

Lechia Zielona Góra34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa IIExpected goals in this matchLechia Zielona Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.37

Raków Częstochowa II

1.52

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.37

Raków Częstochowa II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

1.62

creates per match

1.50

1.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa II

1.62

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.50

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa II

1.24

Lechia Zielona Góra

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa II ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa II or draw

66%

Raków Częstochowa II or Lechia Zielona Góra

75%

Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra

59%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

20%

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

78%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

45%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

20%

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals

75%

Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals

40%

Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

54%

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.62 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

41%

level

25%

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more

34%

Raków Częstochowa II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff