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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
1 – 1
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
8/26/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra45%
×Draw24%
Raków Częstochowa II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.67
Raków Częstochowa II
1.35

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
69%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Raków Częstochowa II
76%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
55%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
23%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
81%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
50%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
23%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
74%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
39%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
59%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
45%
level
24%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
31%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Raków Częstochowa II

Lechia Zielona Góra and Raków Częstochowa II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.