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Raków Częstochowa II vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
FT
2 – 4
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
8/23/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raków Częstochowa II42%
×Draw25%
Carina Gubin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa II
1.56
Carina Gubin
1.38

Raków Częstochowa II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa II
1.62
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa II
1.24
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa II ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa II or draw
66%
Raków Częstochowa II or Carina Gubin
75%
Draw or Carina Gubin
58%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
21%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
79%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
46%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
21%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
75%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
40%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
55%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.62 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raków Częstochowa II scores more
42%
level
25%
Carina Gubin scores more
34%

Raków Częstochowa II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa II vs Carina Gubin

Carina Gubin beat Raków Częstochowa II 4-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Boisko sztuczna murawa Raków in Częstochowa.