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Carina Gubin vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
5 – 2
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Carina Gubin41%
×Draw25%
Raków Częstochowa II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.54
Raków Częstochowa II
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
65%
Carina Gubin or Raków Częstochowa II
75%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
59%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
20%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
79%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
45%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
20%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
76%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
41%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
54%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
41%
level
25%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
35%

Carina Gubin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Raków Częstochowa II

Carina Gubin beat Raków Częstochowa II 5-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.