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Rajasthan United vs Inter Kashi — I-League 2019

Rajasthan United
Rajasthan United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Inter Kashi
Inter Kashi
12/6/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 9Deccan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rajasthan United39%
×Draw25%
Inter Kashi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rajasthan United
1.43
Inter Kashi
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rajasthan United
1.33
Inter Kashi
1.39

allows per match

Rajasthan United
1.33
Inter Kashi
1.52

finishing

Rajasthan United+0.00on par
Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rajasthan United ↓

Inter Kashi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rajasthan United or draw
64%
Rajasthan United or Inter Kashi
75%
Draw or Inter Kashi
61%

Winning margin

Rajasthan United wins by 2+
18%
Inter Kashi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rajasthan United 1+ goals
76%
Rajasthan United 2+ goals
42%
Rajasthan United 3+ goals
17%
Inter Kashi 1+ goals
74%
Inter Kashi 2+ goals
39%
Inter Kashi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)
52%
Inter Kashi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rajasthan United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Inter Kashi away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rajasthan United attack 1.33 + Inter Kashi defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Inter Kashi attack 1.39 + Rajasthan United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rajasthan United scores more
39%
level
25%
Inter Kashi scores more
36%

Rajasthan United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rajasthan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rajasthan United vs Inter Kashi

Rajasthan United and Inter Kashi drew 2-2 in I-League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Deccan Arena in Hyderabad.