Inter Kashi 1–1 Rajasthan United: Result & Stats

Inter Kashi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rajasthan United

3/2/2024

I-League · Round 19Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi54%

×Draw21%

Rajasthan United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchRajasthan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.47

Inter Kashi

2.20

Rajasthan United

1.47

Inter Kashi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 49 away

2.35

creates per match

1.24

1.70

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

Rajasthan United

1.24

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

Rajasthan United

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Rajasthan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Rajasthan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

74%

Inter Kashi or Rajasthan United

79%

Draw or Rajasthan United

46%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

33%

Rajasthan United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

89%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

64%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

37%

Rajasthan United 1+ goals

77%

Rajasthan United 2+ goals

43%

Rajasthan United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

68%

Rajasthan United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Rajasthan United away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Rajasthan United defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.20

Rajasthan United attack 1.24 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

54%

level

21%

Rajasthan United scores more

26%

Inter Kashi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff