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Raja Casablanca vs Maniema Union — CAF Champions League 2019

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maniema Union
Maniema Union
A. Ennaffati 45+5' (pen)
1/19/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 6Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Raja Casablanca63%
×Draw30%
Maniema Union7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.25
Maniema Union
0.25

Raja Casablanca creates 400% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.64
Maniema Union
0.14

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.36
Maniema Union
0.86

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

84%No
  • No84
  • Yes16

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Maniema Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–028%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (28%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
93%
Raja Casablanca or Maniema Union
70%
Draw or Maniema Union
37%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
30%
Maniema Union wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
71%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
36%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
13%
Maniema Union 1+ goals
22%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
3%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
90%
Maniema Union (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 0.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.64 + Maniema Union defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.25

Maniema Union attack 0.14 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
63%
level
30%
Maniema Union scores more
7%

Raja Casablanca at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. HarrarRaja CasablancaRaja Casablanca · G
8.9

Match Events

15'
R. Kitwa← O. Mbala
27'
Rodrigue Kitwa
41'
Taboria Simete
45+5'
A. EnnaffatiPenalty
46'
A. Soussi← H. Ferdaoussi
46'
Y. Najjari← N. Zerhouni
55'
Féderico Bikoro← M. Zrida
77'
P. Sakho← A. Maamouri
82'
L. Joël← R. Musinga
82'
J. Kanu← O. Sangana

Possession

57%Raja

Shots

20Raja

Pass accuracy

52%Raja

Statistics

RajaManiema
Overview
57%Possession43%
20Total Shots21
9Corners7
16Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots21
5On Target8
10Off Target7
5Blocked6
16Inside Box11
4Outside Box10
Passing
57%Possession43%
408Total Passes289
331Accurate Passes215
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
8Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
9Offsides2

CAF Champions League: Raja Casablanca 1–0 Maniema Union

Raja Casablanca beat Maniema Union 1-0 in CAF Champions League on January 19, 2025.

Goals: A. Ennaffati (45+5' pen).

Raja Casablanca controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.