Maniema Union 1–1 Raja Casablanca: Result & Stats

Maniema Union

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Raja Casablanca

J. Bakasu 79'

Y. Najjari 17'

12/7/2024

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 2Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maniema Union37%

×Draw27%

Raja Casablanca36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maniema UnionExpected goals in this matchRaja Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Maniema Union

1.27

Raja Casablanca

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

1.50

creates per match

1.32

1.17

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Maniema Union

1.50

Raja Casablanca

1.32

allows per match

Maniema Union

1.17

Raja Casablanca

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maniema Union+0.00on par

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maniema Union ↓

Raja Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Maniema Union or draw

64%

Maniema Union or Raja Casablanca

73%

Draw or Raja Casablanca

63%

Winning margin

Maniema Union wins by 2+

16%

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Maniema Union 1+ goals

72%

Maniema Union 2+ goals

36%

Maniema Union 3+ goals

14%

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

71%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

36%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maniema Union (draw refunded)

51%

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maniema Union at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maniema Union attack 1.50 + Raja Casablanca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Raja Casablanca attack 1.32 + Maniema Union defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Maniema Union scores more

37%

level

27%

Raja Casablanca scores more

36%

Maniema Union at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Â. Basiala

Maniema Union · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Y. Najjari↳ N. Zerhouni

26'

O. Mbala← J. Mboma

59'

P. Sakho← Y. Najjari

64'

R. Kitwa← R. Musinga

77'

H. Rahimi← A. Ennaffati

77'

M. Zrida← H. Ferdaoussi

79'

J. Bakasu↳ Â. Basiala

81'

L. Joël← A. Bokomboli

81'

T. Simete← O. Sangana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManiemaRaja

Overview

63%Possession37%

10Total Shots6

3Corners2

12Fouls22

Shots

10Total Shots6

5On Target3

5Off Target2

0Blocked1

4Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

433Total Passes259

330Accurate Passes165

76%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls22

1Offsides1