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Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
2/22/2026Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Raja Casablanca54%
×Draw26%
Ittihad Tanger20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.48
Ittihad Tanger
0.77

Raja Casablanca creates 92% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.57
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.64
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
80%
Raja Casablanca or Ittihad Tanger
74%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
46%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
28%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
77%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
43%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
19%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
54%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
18%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
73%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.64 · 120 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.57 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
54%
level
26%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
20%

Raja Casablanca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs Ittihad Tanger

Raja Casablanca beat Ittihad Tanger 2-0 in Botola Pro on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.